Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Election 2012: Generic Presidential Ballot - Election 2012: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 42%

A generic Republican candidate now holds a six-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 48% of the vote, while the president picks up support from 42%.  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 
Last week, the GOP candidate held a 46% to 43% edge over the incumbent. This is the sixth week in a row and the 12th week out of 15 since the beginning of May in which the generic Republican has led Obama.  In those surveys, the Republican has earned 43% to 48% support, while support for the president has ranged from 41% to 45%.  Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders.
Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook.
The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 8-14, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.  
Both Obama and the generic Republican earn strong support from their respective parties. Voters not affiliated with either major political party favor the Republican candidate by a 44% to 35% margin.
Women are now evenly divided between the two candidates, while men continue to favor the Republican.
The president continues to earn support from voters under the age of 30, blacks and voters making under $20,000 annually.  The Republican is favored among older voters, whites and those with higher incomes.   
Seventy-three percent (73%) of the Political Class favors Obama, while 54% of Mainstream voters prefer the generic Republican.
There has been much talk lately about declining enthusiasm for the president among the political left.
However, a review of Rasmussen Reports tracking data for the week ending August 7, 2011 shows Obama still earns an 85% Job Approval rating from liberal Democrats.  At the same time, just 67% of conservative Democrats offer their approval. 
The president continues to earn between 41% and 49% of the vote no matter which named Republican is mentioned as a potential opponent
Republicans have bounced back to a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 14.  Most U.S. voters continue to believe President Obama is more liberal than they are.
full demographic breakdown and historical trends are available to Platinum Members  only.

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