Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Shock Poll: Ted Cruz Plummets with White Evangelicals; Trails Donald Trump by 17 Points



Shock Poll: Ted Cruz Plummets with White Evangelicals; Trails Donald Trump by 17 Points
by Mike Flynn 26 Jan 2016
A new weekly tracking poll from NBC News finds Donald Trump opening a big lead over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97% among evangelical voters nationwide. The poll, conducted by NBC News and Survey Monkey, shows a 14 point shift in favor of Trump over the past week.

According to the survey, Trump has 37 percent support among evangelicals, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has the support of 20 percent of evangelicals. Last week, Trump led Cruz by just 3 points in the tracking poll.

Dr. Ben Carson is third among evangelicals with 11 percent while
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 79% is fourth with 10 percent. Both candidates saw slight up-ticks in their support among evangelicals over the past week.

Last week, the animosity between Trump and Cruz intensified as voting in the Iowa caucus neared. Trump dominated headlines early in the week with an endorsement from Sarah Palin. Trump also made an explicit appeal to evangelicals with a widely publicized speech at Liberty University. The son of Jerry Falwell also spoke strongly in support of Trump.

Political commentator Glenn Beck endorsed Ted Cruz in response to many of these events. Immediately prior to his endorsement of Cruz, Beck spoke forcefully against Donald Trump and made overt appeals to evangelicals in opposition to Trump.

Most of the NBC survey was conducted before Beck’s outbursts against Trump, but may have had a negative impact on Cruz at the end of the poll survey. Of course, because we don’t have more detail on the survey, it is also possible that Beck’s remarks stemmed a larger surge to Trump among evangelicals.

Regardless of the impact of specific moves by the campaigns, which aren’t tracked closely by most voters, this survey shows a clear move by evangelicals towards Trump nationally over the past week.

Interestingly, though, the overall make-up of the Republican primary race changed little over the past week. Trump continues to lead the Republican field by more than 20 points. He currently has the support of 39 percent of Republicans, while Ted Cruz is in second with 17 percent. Rubio fell slightly to 10 percent support.
No other Republican candidate earns more than double-digit support.

The race shifted just 5 points over the past week, with Trump’s support up one point and Cruz’s support down 4 points nationally. One would expect such a dramatic shift in evangelicals to have a larger impact on the overall race, since evangelicals make up a sizable portion of Republican primary voters.

It is also surprising that, in the NBC poll, results among evangelicals match so closely the results among the overall Republican electorate. Considering the poll’s margin of error, there is almost no difference between the candidates’ standing among evangelicals and the wider Republican electorate.

The NBC poll hasn’t released internal numbers of its poll that breaks-out the number of evangelicals in its sample. Overall, the on-line tracking poll is based on results from just over 2,000 Republican voters. The results were compiled between January 18-24.

NBC News
Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky was a reporter for the NBC News, and her son is Marc Mezvinsky.

Note: Marc Mezvinsky is Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky’s son, married to Chelsea V. Clinton, and was an investment banker with the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company).
Chelsea V. Clinton is married to Marc Mezvinsky, Hillary Rodham Clinton & William J. Clinton’s daughter, the vice chair for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and was a correspondent for the NBC News.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is Chelsea V. Clinton’s mother, married to William J. Clinton, the candidate for the 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, Robert B. Barnett is her attorney, and was a director at the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
William J. Clinton is Chelsea V. Clinton’s father, an adviser for the 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, the founder of the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and Robert B. Barnett is his attorney.
Ready PAC (Ready For Hillary) supported for the 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign.
Open Society Foundations was a funder for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
George Soros is the founder & chairman for the Open Society Foundations, a co-chair, national finance council for the Ready PAC (Ready For Hillary), and was the chairman for the Foundation to Promote Open Society.
Foundation to Promote Open Society was a funder for the Brookings Institution (think tank), the Robin Hood Foundation, and the Climate Reality Project.  
Sheryl K. Sandberg was a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), married to David Goldberg, and is a director at SurveyMonkey.
David Goldberg was married to Sheryl K. Sandberg, and the chairman & CEO for SurveyMonkey.
Margaret C. Whitman is a director at SurveyMonkey, was a director at the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and a strategic adviser for Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.
Marc Mezvinsky was an investment banker with the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), is Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky’s son, and married to Chelsea V. Clinton.
Chad C. Sweet was a VP for the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and is married to Julie Spellman Sweet.
Julie Spellman Sweet is married to Chad C. Sweet, and a friend of Heidi S. Cruz & Ted Cruz.
Heidi S. Cruz is a friend of Julie Spellman Sweet, married to Ted Cruz, and a managing director for the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company).
Ted Cruz is married to Heidi S. Cruz, and is the candidate for the 2016 Ted Cruz presidential campaign.
Peter D. Kiernan III was a senior partner at the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and is a director at the Robin Hood Foundation.
Emma Bloomberg was the chief of staff for the Robin Hood Foundation, and is Michael R. Bloomberg’s daughter.
Michael R. Bloomberg is Emma Bloomberg’s father, a possible candidate for the 2016 presidential campaign, and was a donor for the Robin Hood Foundation.
Robin Hood Foundation raised money for the Hurricane Sandy relief.
Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund is a relief organization for Hurricane Sandy.
Mary Pat Christie is the chair for the Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund, married to Christopher J. Christie, and the president of the Drumthwacket Foundation.
Cam Henderson was Mary Pat Christie’s chief of staff, is an executive director for the Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund, and the finance director for the 2016 Chris Christie presidential campaign.
Christopher J. Christie is the candidate for the 2016 Chris Christie presidential campaign, married to Mary Pat Christie, and an honorary chairman for the Drumthwacket Foundation.
Drumthwacket Foundation maintains the governor's mansion for the New Jersey state government.
Donald Trump was a donor for the Drumthwacket Foundation, and is the candidate for the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign.
Robert B. Barnett is Hillary Rodham Clinton, William J. Clinton, Sarah Palin’s attorney, and was Timothy J. Russert’s and Donna E. Shalala’s attorney.
Timothy J. Russert’s attorney was Robert B. Barnett, and was the VP & Washington bureau chief for the NBC News.
Chelsea V. Clinton was a correspondent for the NBC News, is married to Marc Mezvinsky, Hillary Rodham Clinton & William J. Clinton’s daughter, and the vice chair for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
Donna E. Shalala is the president & CEO for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, a risk committee member for the Risky Business Project, was a fellow at the Brookings Institution (think tank), and Robert B. Barnett was her attorney.
Michael R. Bloomberg is a co-chair for the Risky Business Project, Emma Bloomberg’s father, a possible candidate for the 2016 presidential campaign, and was a donor for the Robin Hood Foundation.
Robin Hood Foundation raised money for the Hurricane Sandy relief.
Emma Bloomberg was the chief of staff for the Robin Hood Foundation, and is Michael R. Bloomberg’s daughter.
Sheryl K. Sandberg was a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank), married to David Goldberg, and is a director at SurveyMonkey.
David Goldberg was married to Sheryl K. Sandberg, and the chairman & CEO for SurveyMonkey.
Sarah Palin’s attorney is Robert B. Barnett.
Barack Obama’s attorney is Robert B. Barnett.
William J. Clinton’s attorney is Robert B. Barnett.
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s attorney is Robert B. Barnett, Chelsea V. Clinton’s mother, married to William J. Clinton, the candidate for the 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign, and was a director at the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.
Chelsea V. Clinton is Hillary Rodham Clinton & William J. Clinton’s daughter, married to Marc Mezvinsky, the vice chair for the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, and was a correspondent for the NBC News.
Marc Mezvinsky is married to Chelsea V. Clinton, Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky’s son, and was an investment banker with the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company).
Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky is Marc Mezvinsky’s mother, and was a reporter for the NBC News.
Charles P. Rose Jr. was a correspondent for the NBC News, and is an investor in Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.
Albert A. Gore Jr. is a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, the chairman for the Climate Reality Project, and was a donor for The Climate Project.
The Climate Project was a merged organization with the Climate Reality Project.
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers was a donor for The Climate Project.
Margaret C. Whitman was a strategic adviser for Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, a director at the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Bailout Company), and is a director at SurveyMonkey.
David Goldberg was the chairman & CEO for SurveyMonkey, and married to Sheryl K. Sandberg.
Sheryl K. Sandberg is a director at SurveyMonkey, was married to David Goldberg, and a trustee at the Brookings Institution (think tank).

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